A decade after the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified points, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should join the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
